Among the four locations for the annual craft fair, which has the highest expected value based on the weather probabilities Rain 0.10, Sunny 0.60, Overcast 0.30?

• A. Move to football field - pavilion
• B. Stay in high school gymnasium
• C. Use gym and covered walkway outside gym
• D. Move to football field - open air

Answer: (A)

Think about expected value as the average outcome across weather scenarios, weighted by how likely each scenario is. With rain only 10% of the time, you want a setup that protects you from the rare rain while still letting you capitalize on the majority of days that are sunny or overcast.

The football field pavilion gives you a sheltered space outdoors. It shields vendors and shoppers from rain, so the 10% rainy days don’t derail sales, while still preserving the outdoor layout and flow that often attract more foot traffic on sunny or overcast days. That combination tends to maximize the average outcome across all weather states.

A fully indoor gym would remove weather risk completely, but it can bring higher costs, tighter space, and potentially different crowd dynamics that don’t always translate to higher overall value. The gym with a covered walkway is only partly sheltered and may still limit space or convenience compared to a dedicated pavilion. The open-air option offers no protection from rain, so even a small chance of rain can significantly hurt turnout and revenue on those days.

So the pavilion option best balances weather protection with outdoor appeal, aligning the highest expected value across the given weather probabilities.